| |
HP2DFA > NHC 04.11.90 04:27z 130 Lines 5885 Bytes #-13089 (0) @ WW
BID : 7009_HP2DFA
Subj: NHC: TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (03-Nov 23:15Z)
Path: SR1BSZ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<VE3CGR<DM4RW<HP2DFA
Sent: 261104/0412Z 7009@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
279
AXNT20 KNHC 040401
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on <a href='https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_00Z.gif'>0000 UT
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A sharp trough is analyzed this
evening from 26N65W to 22N68W. This development is associated
with an upper trough reaching from 32N70W through central Florida.
Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data showed
fresh to strong NE to E winds between the trough and 1027 mb high
pressure over the western Atlantic near 37N65W. This pattern is
supporting a weak shear line along 25N. Concurrent altimeter data
showed 8-11 ft seas between the Bahamas and Bermuda. As the low
develops through Wed, the pressure gradient is expected to yield
near-gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning Wed afternoon,
roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas
are expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with these winds through
Thu as the low pressure drifts east- northeastward. The low
pressure could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this
week as it continues to shift slowly E-NE across the sub-tropical
Atlantic. Gale-force winds may continue across northern portions
of this expected broad low pressure into late Sat.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: <a href='https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing
over the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-
level moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the
western Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor
heavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern
South America, as well as Jamaica tonight through Friday. The
heaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western
portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of
precipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall
will lead to possible life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra
Leone near 11N14.5W, and continues southwestward to 08N20W to
06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N25N
to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to
10N between 20W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A broad trough extends from the northeast Gulf to the central
Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 4 ft are active
across the Florida Big Bend area between the trough and 1027 mb
high pressure off Virginia. Light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft
are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, a cold front is entering the NW Gulf and will
continue moving across the NW Gulf through Wed, then weaken and
dissipate Wed night. Moderate northwest to north winds are
expected west of the front. Another cold front is expected to move
across the Gulf waters Fri through Sun night. Fresh to strong
north winds will develop west of the front and west of 93W Sat and
Sun, with moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the
front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports
scattered moderate to strong convection from 10N to 18N between
70W and 82W. A broad 1009 mb low pressure area is centered over
the southwest Caribbean near 12N82W. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate E winds over the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft
seas, and light breezes over the western Caribbean with 1-3 ft
seas.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is
supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over
the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The
pressure gradient will further loosen across the area by
midweek. This will diminish the moderate trades across the
central and eastern Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the western Atlantic.
An upper trough reaches from 32N70W through central Florida. Scatter
showers and thunderstorms are active near 31N67W, southwest of
Bermuda, associated with the upper trough. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also active over the eastern Straits of Florida
into the northern Bahamas. Scatterometer data and buoy
observations confirm fresh to strong winds north of a shear line
along 25N. Altimeter data indicates rough seas with these winds.
Farther east, a stationary front extends from 1015 mb low pressure
near 29N36W to 25N55W. Fresh winds and 6-8 ft combined seas are
evident north of this frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas persist elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure is expected to
develop along the frontal boundary southwest of Bermuda, roughly
from 27N to 28N through Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward
during the rest of the week and the weekend. A broad zone of
strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking
near 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand
eastward Wed through Sun, impacting the waters mainly north of
about 27N. The gale-force winds will likely be north of 29N from
Wed afternoon through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move
across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then
dissipate Sat and Sat night.
$$
Christensen
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |