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HP2DFA > OUTLOK 20.09.90 03:28z 34 Lines 2430 Bytes #-13089 (0) @ WW
BID : 2186_HP2DFA
Subj: 7 DAY TROPICAL & PACIFIC OUTLOOK C.AMERICA SEP19
Path: SR1BSZ<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE2JOS<VE3CGR<PY2BIL<HP2DFA
Sent: 260920/0209Z 2186@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
Over the next **7 days (September 20–27, 2026)**, the regional meteorological outlook for Central America continues to show **0©robability of tropical cyclone formation** across the Western Caribbean Sea and the immediate East Pacific waters along the Central American coastline.
Persistent strong vertical wind shear across the Caribbean basin prevents tropical waves from organizing into tropical depressions or storms. Active low-pressure development is currently displaced far to the north (Tropical Depression Six near the Azores) or well offshore in the open Eastern Pacific west of Mexico.
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### **7-Day Regional Synoptic & Hazard Drivers**
| Basin / Region | Cyclonic Risk (7 Days) | Dominant Synoptic Driver | Primary Hazard Outlook |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **Western Caribbean** | **0 | Tropical Waves N.° 44 and N.° 45 transit | Heavy afternoon/nighttime convective showers, lightning. |
| **East Pacific (CA Coast)** | **0 | Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) oscillation | Orographic enhancement, localized flash flooding. |
| **Mountain Ranges & Slopes** | **N/A** | Saturated soils (100œapacity) daily heating | **Critical risk of landslides, lahars, and debris flows.** |
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### **Key Outlook Highlights**
1. **Tropical Wave Progression:**
* **Tropical Wave N.° 44:** Currently moving across Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua. It will continue its westward track through early next week, keeping moisture convergence high across the southern half of the isthmus.
* **Tropical Wave N.° 45:** Currently moving across the Atlantic/Eastern Caribbean; anticipated to reach the Eastern Central American coastline (Panama/Guna Yala to Nicaragua) by midweek (**September 23–25**).
2. **ITCZ Position:**
* The Intertropical Convergence Zone will remain anchored near or just off the Pacific coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Daily onshore seabreeze convergence will trigger severe convective cells each afternoon and evening.
3. **Ground Saturation & Hydro-Meteorological Risks:**
* Because soil moisture levels across the **Cordillera Central (Panama/Costa Rica)**, **Sierra Madre (Guatemala)**, and **Volcanic Chain (El Salvador/Nicaragua)** are at or near maximum capacity, even moderate localized rain events carry an immediate risk of **landslides, mudslides, and rapid river flooding**.
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